SPCX Stock Futures: 2.75B SpaceX Shares Unlock by December

About 2.75 billion SpaceX shares become eligible for sale between Oct. 9 and Dec. 8, 2026, more than the stock's entire current float of 2.23 billion. That supply calendar is the first thing a trader of SPCX stock futures needs on screen. SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed at $160.57 on Oct. 8, down 4.19%, and the SPCXUSDT perpetual on WEEX was at $166.71 at about 07:12 UTC on Oct. 9, 3.8% higher, after a spectrum deal announced once the market had closed.

This piece lays out every remaining unlock date, explains this week's drop and overnight bounce, puts the valuation in context, and covers how the SPCX perpetual trades.

SpaceX Lock-Up Schedule: Every Remaining Unlock Date

Four tranches remain in the 180-day lock-up pool. The share counts are estimates of the maximum that becomes eligible, published by TradingKey on Sept. 11, 2026.

1. Oct. 9: about 328.4 million shares. This is day 120 after IPO pricing. It equals roughly 14.7% of the float, about $52.7 billion at the Oct. 8 close, and close to four days of recent average volume.
2. Oct. 24: about 328.4 million shares. Day 135 falls on a Saturday, so Oct. 26 is the first session these shares can trade.
3. Two trading days after third-quarter results: up to about 1.3 billion shares. This is the largest tranche left. The earnings date is unconfirmed, with Nov. 5 and Nov. 17 both listed by data providers.
4. Around Dec. 8: about 797.6 million shares. The remainder of the 180-day pool.

Together that is about 2.75 billion shares, or 123% of the current float. Roughly 1.94 billion shares have already been released in five steps since Aug. 6. Elon Musk's stake of about 6.42 billion shares sits under a separate 366-day lock-up that runs to about June 12, 2027.

Two cautions apply. Eligible does not mean sold, and many holders will keep their shares. The estimates also depend on conditions being met, so the actual numbers can come in lower.

The one large precedent argues against waiting for the unlock day to sell. The first and biggest release, 911.5 million shares, came on Aug. 6. SPCX hit its all-time intraday low of $104.83 three days earlier, on Aug. 3, and its lowest close of $108.27 on Aug. 5, the day before the shares were freed. By Aug. 10 it had closed at $138.74, back above the $135 IPO price. The selling arrived ahead of the supply. This week followed the same script on a smaller scale, with the stock losing 6.6% in the three sessions before the Oct. 9 unlock.

Why SPCX Fell 6.6% in Three Days, Then Bounced After Hours

SPCX closed at $171.92 on Oct. 6, $167.60 on Oct. 7 and $160.57 on Oct. 8. Three things weighed on it.

• The unlock itself. Traders positioned ahead of the Oct. 9 release.
• A debt plan. Reports said SpaceX intends to raise about $40 billion of debt to finance Nvidia chips for its AI business. The cost of insuring its debt reached a record 194 basis points.
• Tech weakness. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% on Oct. 8 as rate worries hit growth stocks.

The bounce came at 4:17 p.m. ET on Oct. 8, after the close. SpaceX agreed to acquire 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management for its Starlink business. The price was not disclosed and the deal needs Federal Communications Commission approval. The stock rose about 3% in after-hours trading.

SPCX Futures on WEEX: The Perpetual Priced the Deal First

The SPCXUSDT perpetual on WEEX showed the following at about 07:12 UTC on Oct. 9, 2026:

• Last price: $166.71, down 0.36% in 24 hours
• 24-hour high and low: $168.05 and $160.49
• 24-hour volume: 1.51 million USDT
• Funding rate: +0.000225%, effectively flat
• Maximum leverage displayed: 100x

The 24-hour low of $160.49 sits almost exactly on Thursday's cash close of $160.57. Most of the move above that level is the market's reaction to the spectrum deal, traded hours before Nasdaq reopens. This is what a stock perpetual is for: it lets a view on overnight news be expressed before the opening auction.

The volume figure is the warning. At 1.51 million USDT in 24 hours, the SPCX perpetual traded about one twenty-fifth of the SanDisk perpetual's volume on WEEX over the same period. In a market that thin, a large market order moves the price against itself. Limit orders are the sensible default, and the 100x setting is a number on a slider, not a usable position size.

For unleveraged exposure, SPCX/USDT spot is listed in the WEEX stocks section.

SpaceX Valuation: 25.6x Forward Sales on a 16% Float

SpaceX is priced for growth that leaves little room for error, and only a small share of the company trades.

• Market capitalization: about $2.18 trillion on 13.57 billion shares
• Float: 2.23 billion shares, about 16% of the total
• Forward price-to-sales: 25.6. Tesla trades at about 14 times trailing sales
• Short interest: 162.25 million shares, 7.27% of the float

The stock listed on June 12, 2026 at $135 a share in an offering that raised about $85.7 billion including the overallotment, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. It peaked at $225.64 on June 16. At $160.57 it is 19% above the IPO price and 29% below that high.

Second-quarter results, reported on Aug. 4, showed revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% from a year earlier, a net loss of $541 million and adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion. Connectivity, the Starlink segment, brought in $4.29 billion from 12.0 million subscribers. The AI segment contributed $2.56 billion and the Space segment $962 million. Capital spending was $18.4 billion.

Analysts are mostly positive. MarketBeat's average price target is $218.76, with Morgan Stanley at $300, Goldman Sachs at $230 and Susquehanna neutral at $173.

One mismatch is worth knowing. Thirty-day implied volatility was 48.7% on Oct. 7, while 60-day realized volatility was 70.3%. In daily terms the options market is pricing moves of about 3.1%, and the stock has been delivering about 4.4%. A low float, a high multiple and a dated supply schedule make this a stock that moves on positioning as much as on news.

SPCX Catalysts Through Early December

• Oct. 26: first session for the Oct. 24 unlock
• Oct. 29: FCC vote on direct-to-device satellite service
• Late October, unconfirmed: Starship Flight 15
• Nov. 5 or Nov. 17, unconfirmed: third-quarter results. Wall Street expects revenue of about $12.9 billion, and UBS is at $13.8 billion
• Two trading days later: the 1.3 billion-share tranche
• Around Dec. 8: the final 797.6 million shares

SPCX has been in the Nasdaq-100 since July 7. It is not eligible for the S&P 500 until June 2027 at the earliest, so index buying will not absorb this supply.

The earnings date is the one to pin down. A strong report followed two days later by the largest unlock is a setup where the first move and the second can point in opposite directions.

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FAQ

1. When is the next SpaceX lock-up expiry?

After the Oct. 9 release of about 328.4 million shares, the next is Oct. 24, also about 328.4 million. Because Oct. 24 is a Saturday, those shares can first trade on Oct. 26. Larger tranches follow after third-quarter earnings and around Dec. 8.

2. When does SpaceX report third-quarter earnings?

SpaceX has not confirmed a date. Data providers list Nov. 5 and Nov. 17. The date matters twice, because up to about 1.3 billion locked-up shares become eligible two trading days after the report.

3. What was SpaceX's IPO price?

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share and began trading on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 under the ticker SPCX. The first-day close was about $161. The all-time high is $225.64 and the lowest close is $108.27.

4. Can Elon Musk sell his SPCX shares now?

No. Musk's roughly 6.42 billion shares are under a 366-day lock-up that runs to about June 12, 2027. They are separate from the 180-day pool that is unlocking this autumn.