90% of U.S. Treasury Yield Increase Concentrated Around Employment Data and Fed Speeches

Research has found that over the past six years, the increase in U.S. benchmark Treasury yields has largely concentrated within a three-day window surrounding the release of non-farm payroll reports and speeches by key Federal Reserve officials. Economists Paul Beaudry, Paolo Cavallino, and Tim Willems point out that since August 2020, approximately 90% of the increase in the nominal yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has occurred within just a few days before and after these events.

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