AI Mega-IPO: SpaceX Recovers from Its Roller Coaster, OpenAI Delays, Anthropic Still Aiming for October

Three rockets, three trajectories. Just a few months ago, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic seemed to be on the same orbit: that of a historic IPO capable of absorbing the liquidity of entire markets, including crypto. By early September, the three trajectories had taken very different paths. One experienced a downturn followed by a recovery, another cut its engines, while the third still aims higher. So let's take this sunny weekend to take stock. Key points of this article:

• SpaceX dipped below its IPO price this summer before recovering, returning in early September close to its valuation on the first day of trading, but still 34% below its record.
• OpenAI has pushed its IPO to 2027, a polite way to stall on its valuation of $852 billion.
• Anthropic persists in its race towards a valuation of $2 trillion in October, despite 19 days of forced suspension of its flagship models in June and competition from China.

SpaceX, the recovery that doesn't erase everything

On June 12, SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq at $135 per share. It closed its first session at just over $160, a jump of 19% that lifted it to about $2.1 trillion in valuation. The stock then plunged throughout the summer, reaching a low of $104.83, falling well below its IPO price.

Since then, it has rebounded by over 40%. By the close on September 4, the stock was worth $149.74, giving it a market cap of about $2.01 trillion, nearly the same as on its first day of trading, but still 34% below its intraday record of $225.64 reached shortly after the IPO.

In the meantime, the second-quarter results, published in early August, left the markets dizzy: $7.81 billion in revenue (+92% year-on-year), a net loss of $541 million, halved compared to last year, and above all $18.4 billion in capital expenditures. These results caused the stock to drop by 8% on the day of publication.

OpenAI, the wait that feels like an admission

On its side, Sam Altman filed a confidential S-1 on June 8, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley already at the helm, for an IPO hoped for between September and the end of the year.

At the end of August, CFO Sarah Friar dampened these ambitions in front of employees: the company will go public in 2027, or perhaps earlier, but nothing is set. A polite way of saying that 2026 will probably not be the year. Some operations benefit from staying private a little longer, she hinted, and the valuation of $852 billion that OpenAI still has to justify is likely a factor.

Anthropic, the only one charging straight towards October

Meanwhile, Anthropic is not backing down. According to six investors cited by the Financial Times on August 13, an IPO could exceed $2 trillion as early as October, driven by an annualized revenue that could climb to $120 billion by the end of the year, words from shareholders, not yet an official timeline.

One of them even goes so far as to mention $3 trillion, based on a growth of 800% per year. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan have already been steering the operation since June.

The company founded by the Amodei brothers does carry a more sensitive file. On June 12, the U.S. government imposed a suspension of access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for all foreign users, citing a national security risk. The two models remained offline for 19 days until the restrictions were lifted on June 30—an episode resolved since, but which reminded everyone of the company's dependence on the goodwill of Washington, against a backdrop of increasingly cheaper Chinese competition.

Three companies, three timelines, one market that absorbs the shocks. SpaceX's trajectory alone is enough to remind us that a mega-IPO that breaks records on day one can just as easily plunge or rebound in the months that follow.

The contrast remains stark: Anthropic is charging towards a record IPO based on the promises of its investors, OpenAI is stalling, and SpaceX has just experienced in fast forward what may await the other two after their day of glory on the stock market.

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