Bitcoin: JPMorgan Sees BTC Outperforming Gold

Doctrinal shift on Wall Street. JPMorgan, the largest American bank by balance sheet size, is changing its position. It now believes that Bitcoin can outperform gold in the coming months. This argument is not just a whim. In other words, at equivalent risk levels, the bank's strategists consider the yellow metal to be more expensive than its digital rival. Therefore, Bitcoin would offer a better long-term entry point.

The reasoning comes from the office of Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the chief global markets strategist. His team compares the two assets on a volatility-adjusted basis over several cycles. Ultimately, his successive notes have placed the theoretical value of BTC significantly above its current price.

Key Points

• JPMorgan believes Bitcoin can outperform gold in the coming months
• On a volatility-adjusted basis, the bank's model places the theoretical value of BTC near $170,000
• The debasement trade initially benefited gold, which has a global supply exceeding $25 trillion
• JPMorgan accepts Bitcoin ETFs as collateral and has deployed its JPMD deposit token on Base

Bitcoin vs Gold, JPMorgan's Volatility-Adjusted Calculation

The mechanics boil down to a simple idea. Bitcoin moves more than gold, so a portfolio seeking the same risk level holds less of it. Specifically, JPMorgan quantifies this relationship. The volatility of BTC can be twice that of the metal. In this case, one dollar of Bitcoin carries as much risk as two dollars of gold. Then, it suffices to apply this coefficient to the value of gold held as an investment, excluding jewelry and industrial uses. The result yields a theoretical price for Bitcoin.

The exercise yielded $126,000 by the summer of 2025. It rose to nearly $170,000 in a November note, over six to twelve months. The assumption made: a volatility ratio converging towards 2. Furthermore, gold crossing $4,000 an ounce, a historic first, mechanically inflated this target. The higher the metal rises, the more the model demands an expensive Bitcoin to restore risk parity.

The significant gap between the two markets fuels the asymmetry the bank invokes. The global supply of gold exceeds $25 trillion. Bitcoin's market capitalization, however, remains below 10% of this total. Even a partial shift of defensive savings towards BTC would thus move its price in unprecedented proportions. In short, gold, due to its mass, will never experience such a movement.

Gold Has Already Run, the Debasement Trade Seeks a Relay

The surge in the metal owes much to central banks. The World Gold Council records over 1,000 tons purchased each year by monetary institutions. Moreover, this pace has held for three consecutive years. The other driver bears a name that has become common on desks, the debasement trade. This bet relies on the erosion of the value of fiat currencies. In practice, it feeds off U.S. public deficits and political pressures on the Federal Reserve.

When this bet becomes consensus, gold loses its ability to surprise. JPMorgan sees a congested queue. The bank is therefore looking for a relay in Bitcoin, whose institutional base remains young. U.S. spot ETFs, opened in January 2024, have captured several tens of billions of dollars in net flows. Nevertheless, this amount remains modest compared to the public reserves of metal accumulated over decades.

From "Pet Rock" to Bitcoin ETFs as Collateral, JPMorgan Has Changed Its Stance

The research position contrasts with the statements of the bank's CEO. Jamie Dimon indeed compared BTC to a 1970s gadget, the pet rock sold in a box.

"It does nothing. I call it the pet rock."
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, at Davos in January 2024

The discourse has not slowed the firm. Subsequently, JPMorgan launched JPMD, a deposit token deployed on Base, the layer 2 blockchain developed by Coinbase. It then allowed its wealthy clients to use shares of Bitcoin ETFs as loan collateral globally. Dimon himself had confirmed the opening to his shareholders in May 2025: "We will let you buy it. We will not ensure its custody."

Two conditions could close the gap between Bitcoin's price and the model's target. The first is a volatility sustainably close to that of gold. The second hinges on incoming flows capable of taking over from the central banks buying metal. Moreover, the first is already advancing. The annualized volatility of BTC exceeded 80% during the 2021 cycle. It fell to an unprecedented low of around 30% by the summer of 2025. JPMorgan then described this level as the lowest ever recorded. Each point lost on this indicator increases the amount of Bitcoin a manager is allowed to hold at constant risk. This is precisely what Panigirtzoglou's office measures.

This compression has further intensified since. In a note dated February 5, 2026, JPMorgan raised its long-term Bitcoin target to $266,000. This level is deemed "unrealistic" for 2026 but achievable in the long term if market sentiment improves. The BTC/gold volatility ratio used in the model has dropped to 1.5. This is thus a new low after the 2 retained in November. The calculation is based on private investment in gold outside central bank reserves, estimated at $8 trillion. It also follows the upward revision of its long-term gold target to $8,000-$8,500 an ounce.

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