Caught Off Guard? Anthropic Forced to Release Model Early After Just Calling for a 'Slowdown'

Author: Pan Lingfei

Just seven days after calling for a "slowdown," Anthropic is facing pressure to disrupt its own release schedule.

According to Reuters, amid the backdrop of OpenAI's new model GPT-6 Astra launching just two weeks ago and a sharp decline in its enterprise market share, Anthropic is evaluating the possibility of releasing a new model ahead of schedule. This shift reflects a reality: in the face of an IPO countdown and fierce market competition, the priority of growth curves outweighs safety declarations.

Reuters reports that discussions have already begun internally at Anthropic regarding the early release of a new model, with sources revealing that the AI assistant Claude is deeply involved in the development of the next-generation model. Meanwhile, the report indicates that Anthropic's IPO plans may be delayed until November.

The direct impetus for this dynamic comes from user data from OpenRouter. Since Astra's launch about two weeks ago, it has captured approximately 13% of enterprise AI spending, while Anthropic's Fable series holds only about 8%. OpenRouter's analytics director Peter Walker publicly released charts showing that since Astra's launch, OpenAI's share has rapidly climbed to about 65% by the first week of September, while Anthropic has dropped to around 35%—marking the first time in two and a half years that OpenAI has surpassed Anthropic on this platform.

Astra Achieves Share Turnaround in Two Weeks

In early September, the two companies engaged in an intense back-and-forth regarding their release schedules. On September 1, Anthropic released Fable 5.1, positioning it as "the strongest programming and knowledge work model," and reduced the cache read price by 75%, aiming to solidify its enterprise customer base with cost-effectiveness. Just two days later, on September 3, OpenAI released Astra, with CEO Sam Altman stating, "We are working hard to get Astra into everyone's hands as soon as possible."

Weekly token usage share data from OpenRouter indicates that from January to June 2026, Anthropic maintained a stable platform share of over 50%; however, after Astra's launch, OpenAI's share rapidly increased, reaching about 65% by the first week of September, while Anthropic's share fell to about 35%. This turnaround occurred in just about two weeks.

For Anthropic, the issue is not just the impact of the new model, but also that its flagship product has shown signs of sluggish sales. Two months after the release of Fable 5, enterprise customers' willingness to upgrade to the highest-priced flagship version has been lower than expected, with its share lingering around 11%, as more users opt for the more cost-effective Opus 5. The arrival of Astra may even shake the market position of "just adequate."

The Rift Between the 'Slowdown' Narrative and Commercial Pressures

The context of this defensive action has drawn significant attention from the outside world. On September 12, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a lengthy article publicly calling for a slowdown in AI development. Sam Altman and Elon Musk subsequently made rare public endorsements, stating, "Dario is right."

However, just seven days later, Reuters reported that Anthropic was considering disrupting its established release rhythm to launch a new model early. This shift exposes the tension between Anthropic's brand narrative and commercial realities: the banner of safety and responsible development cannot prevent enterprise customers from voting with their actual usage.

For a company that positions "responsible AI" as its core brand label while pushing for an IPO, releasing a model early is a commercially rational defensive move, but it also means that it has to reassess the "race to accelerate" logic it publicly criticized within two weeks.

Reprioritization Under the IPO Window

According to Reuters, Anthropic's IPO timeline may be delayed until November, further compressing the company's maneuvering space regarding its release strategy. As the IPO approaches, visibility of revenue growth and market share is crucial for valuation and investor confidence.

From the perspective of enterprise customer data, the growth momentum of the Fable series has already slowed; after Astra's launch, Anthropic's share on the OpenRouter platform has been rapidly eroded. In this context, the early launch of a new model is an option that Anthropic must consider under the dual pressures of commercial logic and IPO rhythm.

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