Concerns for the Industry: The Accumulated Data for 2026 is Already 12% Below the Same Period in 2023

This Tuesday, INDEC reported that the Industrial Production Index (IPI) for manufacturing plunged 5% in July compared to the previous month. This data raised alarms and led economists to analyze the entire period of Javier Milei as president. Thus, a concerning conclusion was reached: if we take the average of the seasonally adjusted series between January and July 2026, compared to the same period in 2023, the decline deepens to 12%.

That the industry is going through a complicated moment is no news. But the latest data from INDEC revealed that the situation is becoming increasingly worrying. If we look at the seasonally adjusted monthly comparison, oil refining (+1.7%) was the only one of the 16 manufacturing divisions that showed an improvement compared to June; the other 15 recorded declines.

Moreover, in the first seven months of the year, the industry has accumulated a contraction of -2.6% and is 18.7% below the peak reached in November 2017, according to the consultancy I+D. This data leads to concerns extending to the general economic activity figures. Experts from the city maintain that preliminary data for August is mixed, with a slight negative trend.

Car production fell 12% year-on-year and has accumulated a collapse of 17% so far this year. Similarly, cement shipments contracted 8.1% year-on-year and have decreased by 4.2% in 2026. "Without a rebound in August, it would be difficult to avoid a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of decline)," warned market analysts in advance.

Data from LCG shows that industrial production has yet to recover the lost ground since the beginning of the current administration: the seasonally adjusted index stood at 112 points in July 2026, representing a decline of 8.9% compared to the 123 points recorded in November 2023. Although throughout 2024 and 2025 the series showed intermittent rebounds, the overall trend depicts a clear negative slope towards the latest available data, meaning that the manufacturing framework operates at levels significantly lower than those prior to the economic cycle change.

On their part, ACM also analyzed the industry's trajectory but in this case through the cycle trend: "This measurement had been losing momentum over the past few months, and in the month under analysis, it reached its largest negative variation in over 2 years (-0.9% monthly), which clearly shows the cooling of this index. Comparing this with its value from November 2023, the last full month of Alberto Fernández's government, it is observed that the cycle trend contracted by 5.6%."

The overview of the Milei era was completed with more data: if we take the average of the seasonally adjusted index between January and July 2026 compared to the same period in 2023, the collapse is around 12%, while when comparing against November 2023 (prior to the change of administration), the IPI-M is 9% below in the same series. "This makes it clear that the industry has not yet regained the lost ground in these more than two and a half years of management," described ACM.

In the breakdown by sectors, the distance from 2023 appears concentrated in some chains with very marked "reds," in double digits. Among Non-metallic mineral products (-28.2%), Machinery and equipment (-28.9%), and Textile products (-40.5%), they contributed 4 percentage points to the decline during this period. Meanwhile, Oil refining (+12.6%) and Food and beverages (+3.3%) are the only two sectors that showed growth, with a joint impact of 1.4 points.

"Overall, the contrast between July 2026 and November 2023 describes an incomplete and heterogeneous recovery, with specific winners and a broad core that remains lagging behind," concluded ACM.

The low levels of activity impact employment. According to I+D, although the decline in industrial employment has slowed for the second consecutive month, in May more than 3,000 jobs were lost, and in the last year the contraction totals 53,000 jobs and 93,000 if indirect jobs are included. With this data, these experts projected a total loss of 100,000 jobs in 2026.

Regarding the total private sector, the job loss reached 9,000 in May. In the breakdown by sectors, Commerce outperformed industry by losing 4,200 jobs in the month and recording 12 consecutive months of monthly declines, which implies a contraction of 39,000 jobs. In total, the private sector has already lost almost 138,000 formal salaried jobs in the last year.

In this same vein, the loss of industrial companies continued to accelerate. "In May, the number of industries contracted by more than 400 establishments, the highest value since 2019. So far this year, nearly 1,500 industrial companies have been lost. We project a loss of 1,800 more companies for the rest of the year, raising the figure to 3,300 companies in 2026," concluded I+D.

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