Morgan Stanley Bullish on SpaceX, Target Price $300, Focus on AI and Manufacturing Growth

Morgan Stanley summarizes the rebuilding of advanced manufacturing in the U.S. as "Tera'Merica," believing that opportunities span fields such as rockets, satellites, industrial robots, humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, and drones. SpaceX's aerospace, satellite communications, and AI infrastructure businesses are expected to benefit. Morgan Stanley estimates that SpaceX's AI computing capacity will reach approximately 4.9GW by the end of FY 2027, with a target close to 10GW. According to their calculations, each additional 1GW of nominal computing power, assuming an investment of $50 per watt, a 70% incremental profit margin, and a 10x EBITDA valuation, could increase the per-share value by about $27. Based on this assessment, Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on SpaceX, with a target price of $300. They are also optimistic about the commercialization potential of enterprise AI but point out that the market remains cautious about the valuations of related businesses, applying a 50% discount to the valuation of enterprise AI businesses. The progress of Starship and Starlink, the cost of computing infrastructure, and the speed of enterprise AI commercialization remain major risks.

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