Bitcoin on the Path to $11 Million... "The Power Law Will Break in 2036"

Joe Burnett, Vice President of Strive, presents a bold outlook

Bitcoin prices are expected to rise through three stages

Decreased volatility → Surge in collateral value → Explosive positive cycle

"The moment Bitcoin comes down from this roller coaster, it will be shot into space and fly to the moon."

Joe Burnett, Vice President responsible for Bitcoin strategy at the U.S. listed company Strive, wrote a report in March stating that "the price of Bitcoin will reach $11 million per coin in the first quarter of 2036." At that time, the report was so detached from market conditions that it did not receive much attention. On the 28th, Burnett revealed the specific path for Bitcoin to reach $11 million in another report.

Bitcoin at $11 Million

His report (The Fracture: Breaking Bitcoin's Power Law) predicts that Bitcoin prices will move through three stages, and in the final third stage, the Power Law will break, leading to an explosive upward phase.

The 'disruptive force' that will drive Bitcoin to $11 million comes from decreased volatility, a surge in collateral value, and the resulting influx of capital creating a positive cycle. To verify this hypothesis in the financial market, Bitcoin must be recognized as collateral in real financial transactions, such as purchasing homes or investing in data centers.

In fact, financial institutions that handle Bitcoin-backed loans have started to appear one by one in the U.S.

The Misunderstanding that Bitcoin is Trapped in the 'Power Law'

In the past, Bitcoin exhibited roller coaster-like movements, soaring by 100 times and then plummeting dramatically. As time passed and the market grew, the price volatility has significantly decreased compared to the past.

Financial experts have accepted the 'Power Law' as a theory based on over ten years of price data, which states that Bitcoin's rate of increase and volatility are gradually flattening. According to this formula, the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise to about $1.25 million by 2036.

The Power Law refers to the exponential spread of any technology or product when it is accepted in the market. As the market matures, price volatility decreases, and the rate of increase also proportionally declines. In other words, it is expected that Bitcoin will also face growth limits as its maturity increases according to the Power Law. However, Burnett believes that the Power Law will break.

Hints Found in Materials Science... The Principle of Sudden 'Fracture'

Joe Burnett argues that Bitcoin prices will soar above the flat upward prediction line, breaking the Power Law. He found hints in materials science. He likens the phenomenon where repeated stress on airplane wings or legs accumulates metal fatigue, leading to the eventual destruction of steel structures.

The tiny cracks that form in the metal initially grow slowly and predictably, but once a certain threshold (critical point) is passed, they suddenly accelerate and break. Burnett claims that the Bitcoin market will also experience a 'three-stage fracture' that breaks through existing prediction lines and explodes after passing the current flat stage.

The Reversal Brought by Decreased Volatility... Transformation into 'The Best Collateral'

Bitcoin's volatility is indeed decreasing. In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically showed an 80% drop, but this time it started to reverse around the 50% mark. So where will the power for the now calmer Bitcoin to explode again come from?

Burnett argues that the very reduction in price volatility is a significant turning point. As the risk of Bitcoin price crashes decreases, banks and financial institutions begin to evaluate Bitcoin as a highly reliable 'safe collateral asset.'

In the past, loans were given sparingly due to high risk, but as volatility decreases, more dollars can be lent against the same Bitcoin collateral at lower interest rates. This is the principle behind the 'digital credit' emphasized by listed companies like Strive and Strategy.

The Collision of Fixed Supply of 21 Million and Increasing Dollars

Burnett claims that a strong capital positive cycle (Reflexive Loop) occurs in this process. Bitcoin is strictly limited to only 21 million units worldwide. In contrast, the dollar loans and credit funds issued against Bitcoin collateral can continue to grow without limits.

With the now less risky Bitcoin as collateral, massive dollar loans are created, and this capital competes to buy the limited Bitcoin, leading to explosive price increases. As prices rise, the collateral value increases further, completing a positive cycle of increased lending. Once the acceleration begins, it operates like a flywheel that spins even faster.

The Combination of AI Deflation and the $11 Million Scenario

Burnett emphasizes that this feedback loop connects to the macroeconomics of the AI era, leading to the price of $11 million in 2036.

As AI technology advances and production costs plummet, strong price declines (deflation) occur. However, the existing financial system, maintained by debt, cannot withstand deflation, so governments and central banks have no choice but to continue injecting massive amounts of money (liquidity) to prevent system collapse.

In a depreciating currency environment, investors will gather funds into Bitcoin, which has absolute scarcity. The recent rise of debasement trading is precisely that.

Bitcoin Leaping Beyond the Upper Limit of the Power Law

The $1.25 million predicted by the Power Law for 2036 is merely a figure representing the process of Bitcoin maturing into 'excellent collateral' (stage 2). The accumulated collateral value from decreased volatility, combined with the unlimited dollar expansion of the AI era, will cause Bitcoin to break through the upper limit of the existing Power Law and soar upwards.

If Bitcoin reaches $11 million per coin, its market capitalization will be $230 trillion. If global financial assets grow at 7% annually until 2036, their scale will reach $1,970 trillion. Even at a price of $11 million per coin, Bitcoin's share will be about 12%. It is argued that even if it does not completely replace the existing currency system, it can still reach a price that is sufficiently attainable by absorbing a portion of global assets.

According to Burnett, the $11 million per Bitcoin is not an extreme optimism but rather a conservative outlook.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.