KOSPI Falls Below 6000 Amid Changxin Memory Shock... Will Bitcoin Follow a Different Path from the 'OpenAI Shock'?

[Block Media Reporter Ham Ji-hyun] The news of Changxin Memory (CXMT), a Chinese semiconductor company, making progress in the development of next-generation DRAM has led to a sharp decline in global semiconductor stocks, putting downward pressure on the domestic stock market and the digital asset market. However, this shock is different from the recent revenue controversy surrounding OpenAI, and analyses suggest it may have a different impact on Bitcoin's medium to long-term direction.

Both events have dampened investor sentiment towards AI-related tech stocks, but while the OpenAI incident stemmed from doubts about the revenue growth and profitability of AI companies, the Changxin Memory incident is primarily concerned with fears of price declines due to intensified competition in semiconductor supply.

Changxin Memory, China's largest DRAM manufacturer, announced on the 13th that it has made significant progress in its next-generation memory design technology, '4F²', and plans to launch server-grade DDR5 DRAM products within the year.

4F² is a technology that reduces the area occupied by cells storing data in semiconductors, allowing more data to be stored in chips of the same size. If commercialized successfully, it could enhance production efficiency and strengthen memory price competitiveness.

The market is paying attention to the possibility that the technological catch-up by Chinese companies could weaken the price-setting power enjoyed by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology in the U.S.

On the 12th (local time), Micron's stock fell nearly 3.9% on the New York Stock Exchange, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped by 2.67%. In contrast, the Nasdaq index's decline was limited to 0.44%, indicating that selling pressure was concentrated in the semiconductor sector.

The shock was even more pronounced in the domestic stock market. The KOSPI closed down 3.65% at 6384.24 on the 12th, and by 10:57 AM on the 13th, it had plummeted 6.73% to 5954.79, falling below the 6000 mark. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the decline, and a sidecar was triggered to temporarily halt program sell orders due to the sharp drop in KOSPI 200 futures.

However, it is difficult to interpret this decline as solely the influence of Changxin Memory. Concerns about the profitability of AI investments, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, high international oil prices, and U.S. Treasury yields are simultaneously pressuring investor sentiment.

Bitcoin Recovers Losses, but Altcoin Market Continues to Feel Shock

The shock from Changxin Memory has led to mixed reactions in the digital asset market. Bitcoin fell to $81,000 in the morning but rose to $83,500 by 1:40 PM, recovering a significant portion of its initial losses due to the global stock market's decline. However, many altcoins are showing a relatively slow recovery.

In particular, privacy assets that had shown aggressive upward trends have experienced significant declines. Near Protocol (NEAR) fell by 10.05% compared to the previous day, and Zcash (ZEC) dropped by 9.65%.

This suggests that as investors reduce their exposure to risk assets, altcoins, which are less liquid and have greater price volatility than Bitcoin, may be facing greater selling pressure.

When market anxiety increases, the liquidation of leveraged positions and investors' moves to secure cash can exacerbate the declines in altcoins.

This differentiation indicates that Bitcoin's price recovery may not lead to a simultaneous recovery across the entire digital asset market. Even if Bitcoin rebounds, if investors' risk appetite does not recover sufficiently, altcoins may remain weak for an extended period.

Ultimately, the key point to watch in this shock is not only how quickly Bitcoin recovers but also whether buying pressure spreads to altcoins.

OpenAI Faces 'Demand Concerns', Changxin Memory Faces 'Supply Competition'

A comparable case to this incident is the revenue controversy surrounding OpenAI that emerged last week.

On the 8th, the Financial Times (FT) reported that OpenAI's annualized revenue at the end of September was approximately $50 billion, which is $20 billion less than the previously reported $70 billion.

This news raised concerns that the revenue growth of the AI industry may not be supported by large-scale data center investments. On the 8th, the Nasdaq fell by about 1.3%, and major AI-related stocks such as Nvidia and AMD also showed weakness.

In contrast, the Changxin Memory incident raises the possibility of actual changes in the semiconductor supply structure.

If China's DRAM production capacity and technological competitiveness expand, the pressure for memory price declines could increase. This could be a factor for reduced profitability for semiconductor manufacturers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, but it could also lead to cost savings for companies building servers and data centers.

While the OpenAI incident raised doubts about the sustainability of AI investment demand, the Changxin Memory incident suggests the possibility of conducting the same AI investments at lower costs.

This difference is also significant for Bitcoin's medium to long-term outlook.

If AI demand itself slows more quickly than expected, the long-term avoidance of risk assets and the dampening of tech stock investments could negatively impact Bitcoin.

Conversely, if the expansion of memory supply leads to actual price declines, it could lower the costs of building AI infrastructure and alleviate inflationary pressures on some IT products. If such changes lead to overall economic inflation stabilization, it could reduce the Federal Reserve's tightening burden.

Of course, a decline in semiconductor prices alone will not change the direction of U.S. prices or interest rates. Factors such as energy and service prices, and the employment market situation are much more important variables, and it remains to be seen whether Changxin Memory's technology will actually lead to mass production and price competitiveness.

Bitcoin's Direction Depends on U.S. Prices and Interest Rates More Than Semiconductors

Ultimately, how long Bitcoin will be affected by this semiconductor shock depends on which of two paths prevails.

If the losses in the semiconductor sector spread to a sell-off of global risk assets, Bitcoin could face additional downward pressure. Especially if U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar remain at high levels, it may become difficult for new funds to flow into digital assets.

On the other hand, if semiconductor supply competition lowers production costs and prices in the long term, and the selling pressure on tech stocks eases, Bitcoin may show a different trend from the stock market.

The immediate variables that the market is paying attention to are the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, which will be released on the 14th, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on the 15th. If these two indicators come in higher than market expectations, concerns about further tightening from the Federal Reserve could outweigh expectations for price stability due to the supply expansion from Changxin Memory.

Conversely, if inflationary pressures ease and the declines in U.S. semiconductor stocks diminish, it could create conditions for a short-term rebound for Bitcoin.

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