Why Bitcoin Could Drop Below $80,000 After Another Failed Bounce

Bitcoin has faced renewed pressure in recent days, as rising oil prices and increasing yields on U.S. Treasuries have prompted investors to reduce risk exposure.

Persistent disruptions to energy supply chains in the Middle East related to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran have pushed Brent above $100 per barrel and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury above 5.3%.

These developments have heightened fears about inflation and financial conditions, weighing on Bitcoin's ability to sustain a recovery.

Rising Oil Prices and Higher Yields Curb Risk Appetite

The increase in energy costs can complicate inflation outlooks, while higher Treasury yields enhance the attractiveness of yield-bearing investments.

Together, these pressures have contributed to a more cautious trading environment for Bitcoin and other assets sensitive to changes in risk appetite.

The macroeconomic scenario also leaves crypto prices exposed to further volatility if supply disruptions worsen or bond yields continue to rise.

In an email to Invezz earlier this week, Utkarsh Ahuja, founder and Managing Partner of Moon Pursuit Capital, noted that the cost of capital continues to dictate market direction.

"Crypto, AI, quantum, and other frontier technologies are highly sensitive to capital availability because a significant part of their value is based on future growth. Lower real yields and more accommodative financial conditions give investors greater leeway to underwrite that growth, while higher rates impose much greater discipline on valuation and risk," the analyst said.

Expert Opinion I remain constructive looking into Q4, but the decline in expectations for an October hike does not represent a green light for risky assets. Inflation remains the constraint. The Fed can pause while maintaining tight financial conditions, and there is an important difference between the end of further tightening and the beginning of truly more accommodative monetary conditions.
Utkarsh AhujaFounder and Managing Partner at Moon Pursuit Capital

Bitcoin Below Short-Term Moving Averages

On the four-hour and daily charts, BTC/USD is trading below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating weakness in the short-term trend.

However, the price has remained above the 200-period moving average, suggesting that the long-term structure on that timeframe has not yet fully disintegrated.

$83,696 represents a significant resistance level in the short term. A sustained recovery above this level would help strengthen the case for stabilization.

MACD and the Awesome Oscillator signal bearish momentum, while ADX values are consistent with the prevailing trend.

RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power readings indicate oversold conditions, while the Stochastic RSI remains neutral.

These signals suggest significant selling, but oversold conditions alone do not establish that a bounce is imminent. Prices may remain under pressure even if momentum indicators remain depressed.

The combination of the macroeconomic conditions described above and weak technical signals continues to limit Bitcoin's bounce prospects.

For this reason, the market condition in the short term below $83,696 remains bearish, with no strong recovery signal emerging at this time.

Failure to reclaim the key resistance level could see Bitcoin consolidate between $83,000 and $79,655 in the coming days.

A sustained move above $83,696 would be an initial requirement for a more robust recovery. Conversely, a break below the lower boundary of the projected range at $79,655 would weaken the consolidation scenario and increase the risk of further losses.

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